By Nicholas Colon
Understanding the statistics used by casinos is essential in evaluating results. We use this to determine whether the results, bad or good, are a function of luck or skill. Here I will apply the statistical analysis to blackjack, but with minimal effort this can be applied to any casino game.
Blackjack does not adhere to the traditional mathematical laws of gaming. Most games of chance reflect the mathematical concept known as “the law of independent trials” that states that past events have no relevance on future events.
If a coin is flipped there is a 50% chance that the outcome would be heads and a 50% chance that the outcome would be tails. If the coin comes up 10 heads in a row the next flip would again have a 50% chance of coming up heads. In blackjack what happens in the past directly affects what happens in the future. Blackjack has memory, and the law of independent trials is not valid.
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